Capgemini Consulting announces figures from Global Trade Flow Index
Capgemini Consulting has announced figures from the latest edition of its Global Trade Flow Index, revealing a significant decline in global trade flows. Driven largely by the impact of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan and the resulting effect on trade with major economies, Capgemini Consulting's analysis shows that levels of global trade continued to fall in Q2 2011, by a further one per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), leading to an eight per cent decline in global trade volumes overall in the first six months of 2011. The report also highlights the impact of the recent E. coli outbreak in Europe on global trade levels. The analysis reveals that while heavily impacted by Japan's reduction in industrial production and a rise in commodity prices, the US retains its position as global leader in overall trade volumes, despite a reduction in total trade of two per cent in Q2 2011 q-o-q.
"We have seen a marked reduction in global trade levels in the first half of this year, as manufacturing industries around the world continue to feel the effects of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Compounded by the E. coli crisis and sovereign debt challenges in Europe as well as geopolitical instability in the MENA region, global trade volumes have continued to decline in the second quarter of 2011. However, we do expect to see some signs of recovery as we move into Q3 as the economies of Japan and its major trading partners begin to rebound," said Roy Lenders, Vice-President - Supply Chain Management, Capgemini Consulting.
Looking ahead to Q3 2011, world trade flows are expected to rebound as Japan's import and export levels begin to recover. However, instability in Europe, where the threat exists of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and agricultural exports continue to suffer in the aftermath of the E. coli outbreak, could pose a key risk to any expected growth in global trade levels. The effects of the Arab spring unrest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) on rising oil prices is also likely to impact the global economic outlook while ongoing fiscal imbalances in the US also risk creating global financial market instability.
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