The Explainer: Will Israel attack Iran?
In the early years of the last
decade, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) shocked the world when it
uncovered Iran’s clandestine pursuit of nuclear weapons programme. However, the
IAEA exposé merely confirmed the worst fears of the international community that
was all along merely suspecting such a possibility.
Today, the European Union, the United
States, and Israel are convinced that Iran’s is out to develop nuclear weapons.
The international community, including India, has made it amply clear that it
does not want a nuclear Iran. The usually restrained Government of India has
clearly stated that it does not want another nuclear power in the
neighbourhood.
As was expected, Iran denied
the accusations listed in the IAEA report and has maintained that its nuclear
programme is for civil energy generation. Tehran maintains that it has no
interest in nuclear weapons, but that as a member of the NPT it has an
inalienable right to peaceful nuclear energy. According to the Nuclear Threat
Initiative, critical parts of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure “include a
VVER-1000 MWe light water reactor at Bushehr, a uranium conversion facility at
Esfahan, an enrichment facility at Natanz, a heavy water production plant, and
a heavy water reactor at Arak”.
Sanctions
The United States has imposed oil embargo against Iran, under which any country/entity which does trade with Iran’s central bank (most of the revenue
transactions for energy sales by Iran are handled by its central bank) for
purchase of its energy resources will face serious penalties in the United
States.
The EU has also boycotted purchase of oil and gas from Iran, which
will take six months for full implementation. It is believed that if these sanctions are fully carried out, they could help isolate
Iran’s central bank and effectively choke off the sale of Iranian oil by
obstructing the means of payment, which in turn will force Iran to abandon its
nuke weapons programme.
The new U.S.-EU oil embargo is
in addition to the sanctions imposed by the United Nations. The UN sanctions
prevent all members and international financial institutions from entering into
new commitments for grants, financial assistance, and concessional loans, to Iran, except for humanitarian and developmental purposes. Exports of arms
from Iran have also been banned and member states are told to exercise
restraint in selling major arms systems to Iran.
Impact of Sanctions
The
current international sanctions and conflict with the West could push Iran
deeper into an economic morass, which it can ill-afford. In fact, not only will
such a conflict stop the flow of any foreign investment into the country, it
could also lead to a flight of capital from the country. In fact, the sanctions
are already having a debilitating impact on the Iranian economy. It defaulted
on payment for about 200,000 tonnes of rice from India.
India is considering not exporting any more rice
to Iran on credit, as suppliers
such as those in Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan had already stopped doing so.
Why not military
action?
If
there is any one thing that’s discouraging the U.S. and other major powers from
taking military action against Iran, it is oil. Iran has more than 9 per cent
of the world’s oil and gas reserves. It has threatened to block the Strait of
Hormuz through which nearly one-third of global oil supply passes every day. Any
major disruption in global oil supply could lead to a serious spike in the cost
of oil. Even if we discount the current global slowdown, a rise in the cost of
oil (because of the fear of disruption in supply) could jeopardize any chance
of a quicker recovery of the world economy.
War by covert means?
Apart from direct military intervention, it is widely speculated that the U.S. and Israel have launched a phantom cyber war to scuttle Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions.
In January 2011, The New York Times published an article on the Stuxnet virus, which is believed to have been a joint American-Israeli project to sabotage the Iranian nuke programme. The Stuxnet is believed to be the most sophisticated cyber-weapon ever deployed. The computer worm has set reportedly wreaked technological havoc on the Iranian nuke programme; in fact, the U.S. and Israeli intelligence establishments believe that because of the worm, Iran has already run into technological difficulties that could delay a bomb until 2015.
It is also believed that Israel, in preparation for the air attack, already has special forces in place in Iran. Also, it is likely that they were behind the killing of five key Iranian scientists (all related to the nuke programme) over the last two years.
What are the plausible air
routes that Israel could use to attack Iran?
In the light of the geographical location of Israel and Iran and the geopolitical reality of the region, there are three plausible air routes that Israeli air force may use to attack Iran.
Jordan-Iraq
Route. The most ‘comfortable’ route for Israeli aircraft to attack Iran will
be through Jordanian and Iraqi airspace. Jordan, which is pro-West and not
comfortable with the idea of a nuclear Iran, in unlikely to react in any major
way. Iraq lacks any major air disruptive capability. In other words, Iraq, after
the U.S. withdrawal, lacks the military infrastructure to stop Israel from
using its airspace to attack Iran. However, a Shia-dominated Iraqi government, which
is close to Iran, has already warned Israel to avoid violating its airspace,
which may make flying through Iraqi airspace difficult.
Turkey-Syria
northern route. Initially when Israel was planning for the attack on Iran, one
potential route they considered was the northern route: flying through the Mediterranean
Sea (along Lebanese and Syrian coasts) and then close to the Turkey-Syria
international border. Now let us look at why this will not work:
(a) Syria is a sworn
enemy of Israel; it, along with Iran, supports the Hezbollah and Hamas, both of
which are anti-Israel. Also, Israel had occupied the Golan Heights from Syria
in the 1967 Six Day War.
(b) Till a few years ago,
Turkey was one of the very few allies Israel had in the Muslim World. However, deteriorating
bilateral relations (because of a host of reasons like the botched Israeli raid
on a Turkish aid ship, destined for the Gaza Strip) have put the Turkey-Israel
bonhomie in cold storage.
In the light of these facts, the
northern route will not work for the Israeli military operation against Iranian
nuclear facilities.
Jordan-Saudi
Arabia route. The third and most plausible route would be through the
Jordan-Saudi Arabia air corridor. This would call for flying through Jordan and
entering Saudi airspace.
Why this
route may work? Saudi
Arabia is Sunni while Iran is the world's largest Shia republic. For decades
now, Iran has been challenging the Saudi hegemony in the Islamic World. Iran's
rising power ambitions threaten Saudi Arabia's leadership of the Islamic World at large and
the Arab World in particular. In short, Saudi Arabia is an ideological, sectarian, and power rival.
Established as a Jewish State in 1948, Israel is
the first theocratic State in the post-Second World War world. Judaism (the
religion of the Jews) and Islam have been at loggerheads for centuries.
Also, Israel
is an undeclared nuke weapons power; in this regard, Israel follows an 'ncnd'
policy, i.e., it neither confirms nor denies its nuke status. Its nuke weapons
make it the only nuke weapons state in the Middle East.
Ever since the
Islamists brought in an Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has called for
the destruction of Israel. It is in this context that reports of Israel’s
planned strikes against Iranian nuke plants should be understood. Israel
believes that Iran, in a moment of sheer desperation, may launch a nuclear weapons
attack against it.
In this
regard, in highly secretive meetings, it is learnt that Saudi Arabia has given permission to Israel to use its northern air corridor for flyover to strike at Iran’s secretive nuclear plants.
The U.S. is not in favour of an Israeli air
strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. It believes that an air strike may
achieve limited gains, as most of the Iranian nuclear facilities are located in
secret underground bunkers. Also, any attack against Iran may rally Islamists
and liberals in the Muslim World against not just Israel but also the U.S., which many see as the
Jewish State’s principal backer. Such attacks also raises the dangerous possibility
of attacks against U.S. citizens in various parts of the world.
In other words, the U.S. believes that an Israeli
air strike against Iran may turn out to be a massive strategic miscalculation,
riddled with consequences that have the potential to disrupt global economic recovery
and big power status.
(Picture sourced from here.)
