The Explainer: Ukraine - Recent Developments
In the first part of The Explainer on the Ukraine crisis, I related the story
of the Orange Revolution of 2004. As it is, the key political players in the
Orange Revolution, namely Viktor Yanukovych and Russia, turned out to be the
central players in the crisis that has gripped Ukraine.
The protests broke
out in November last year following Mr Yanukovych’s unwillingness to sign a
trade deal with the European Union and instead accept financial help from
Russia. The protests remained largely peaceful until January, when some
anti–government activists were killed. But the violence escalated after the
president’s forces attacked following a broken truce, leaving dozens dead.
In this article, I
will take through the recent developments in Ukraine and Russia. We will also
look at the varied interests of all the parties involved – Ukraine, Russia, the
European Union and the United States.
Ethnic makeup
shapes political destiny
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| Source: bbcnews.com |
Ukraine is a former Soviet republic. In a population of about 44 million, native Ukrainians comprise about 82% while the Russian–speaking make up 17% of the population.
A cursory glance at
the ethnic map will reflect the deep unease that characterizes the relationship
between various ethnic groups, especially the native Ukrainians, living in the
west, and the Russian–speaking groups, living in the east. While the country is
predominantly Christian, the west is
largely Catholic; the east is Russian Orthodox.
These ethnic faultlines also permeate the political system. After Ukraine gained
independence in 1991 (the year the USSR disintegrated), the country’s political
leadership did little to bridge the ethnic and political chasm that deeply
divided the Ukrainian society. Instead, political leaders only sought to impose
their will on unwilling ethnic groups. As the political pendulum swayed between
rival political groups, it only added to the fears of all involved about the
loss of power and privilege.
This,
in effect, can be seen as the central idea behind the deep polarisation between
Ukraine’s western and southern Ukrainian areas and its northern and eastern
Russian–speaking parts. In fact, we can apply this unpalatable truth to the
deep political rivalry between Viktor Yanukovych and his main political
opponent, Yulia Tymoshenko. They represent the two major groups of Ukraine and
hence, they do not see eye to eye.
How it all
started
In November last
year, the government of President Viktor
Yanukovych backed out of an agreement that would have strengthen trade and
political ties with the European Union and also brought much–needed investment
and aid to revive the country’s tottering economy. Mr Yanukovych,
who was backed by Russia in the Orange Revolution said he would take the
help of Moscow in rebuilding the Ukrainian economy.
Many
in Ukraine, especially the Ukrainian speaking groups, were not happy, and took
to the streets. They demanded that the government abandon its policy of
appeasing Russia and called for moving toward the European Union.
Several
weeks of protests did not budge the government from pursuing its pro–Russia
policy. In the third week of February, Mr Yanukovych escaped to Russia after
security forces killed over 80 agitators in Kiev, Ukraine’s capital. Events
moved fast: the country’s parliament, including members of Mr Yanukovych's own
party, voted to replace him with interim president, Oleksandr Turchinov, and
issued a warrant for the arrest of deposed president, holding him responsible
for the deaths of scores of protestors.
Why is Crimea
important?
Crimea
is a region of southern Ukraine located on a peninsula of the Black Sea. Crimea
became part of Ukraine only in 1954 when Soviet president Nikita Khrushchev, an
Ukrainian by birth, took away the province from Russia (another Soviet
republic) and merged it with Ukraine. More than 60 per cent of the province’s
population is Russian and see themselves as Russian and not Ukrainian.
Politically,
Crimea is autonomous and can run its own affairs through a local parliament, it
was not given the right to secede from Ukraine.
For
Russia, Crimea is important not just because of the Russian demographic factor;
the Crimean port town of Sevastopol is home to Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Soon
after independence, Russia extracted a long–term lease agreement from Kiev for
the military use of the province. Even after the disintegration of the USSR in
1991, the two new
countries reached an agreement to permit the Russian Black Sea fleet to remain
based at the Crimean port of Sevastopol.
In 2010, Mr
Yanukovich and then Russian president Dmitry Medvedev signed an agreement in
2010 that extended Russia's lease of Sevastopol until 2042 in
exchange for a 30 per cent drop in the price of natural gas sold to Ukraine.
Has Crimea
seceded from Ukraine?
After Mr Yanukovych
fled to Russia, massive public rallies called for secession from Ukraine and
merger with Russia. Armed men, believed to be from the Russian military, took
control of all (Ukrainian) government facilities, including military facilities,
while elected political leaders were replaced with pro–Russia politicians.
The Russia–backed
Crimean politicians held a referendum to secede from Ukraine and a merger with
Russia, a move openly backed by Moscow. On March 16, Crimea's election
committee said that a staggering 97% of voters backed a union between Crimea
and Russia.
Russia’s parliament
approved and ratified a treaty to make Crimea a part of the Russia. In effect,
Russia now considers Crimea a part of the Russian Federation.
International
reaction
The United States,
the European Union and Ukraine declared that the Crimean referendum was a
violation of international law. The United States says that Crimean referendum
throws into disarray the European map that was settled following decades of
conflict during the Cold War in which the Soviet Union terrorized Eastern
Europe. When it dissolved in 1991, countries such as Poland and East Germany
and the republics of Ukraine, Latvia and others were finally freed and became
peaceful democracies. The U.S. says Russian president Vladimir Putin’s move
reverses that trend, and the fear is that he may do it with other nations,
risking war.
In the aftermath of
the Crimean secession from Ukraine, the United States and the European Union
imposed an array of political and financial sanctions against Russia. Russia,
retaliating in kind, imposed its set of sanctions against the U.S. and the EU.
We will not get into a discussion on what these sanctions are about and how
they may impact all involved.
Why is Russia
interested in Ukraine?
“The
West must understand that, to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign
country. Russian history began in what was called Kievan–Rus,” wrote former U.S. secretary of state Henry Kissinger in a Washington Post op–ed. Kievan–Rus was the first eastern Slavic
state, with the capital at Kiev. Ukraine was part of Russia for centuries, and
the two continued to be closely aligned through the Soviet period, when Ukraine
and Russia were separate republics.
Ukraine
is also an economic partner that Russia would like to incorporate into its
proposed Eurasian Union, a customs union due to be formed in January
2015 whose likely members include Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Armenia (all former
Soviet republics controlled by pro–Moscow dictators). If Ukraine becomes a
member of the Eurasian Union, then the overall population of the trade bloc
will rise by about 25 per cent; greater population will mean greater market.
Also, Ukraine plays a significant role in Russia’s energy trade. Ukraine is a
big importer of Russian gas. Ukraine has a vast network of energy pipelines; in
fact, its pipelines provide transit to more than 70 percent of the natural gas
Russia exports to European markets.
What
are the other Russian concerns?
Russia
sees Ukraine as a buffer state. Moscow believes that if Kiev gets closer to the
European Union, then it will bring its own attendant set of problems; for
example, Russia fears that the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO),
established in 1949 as an anti–USSR military organisation, will come to its
door step. Russia believes its fears are not unfounded; it believes that the
EU’s Eastern Partnership Programme, established in 2009, is
aimed at forging tighter bonds with six former Eastern bloc countries.
An
expanding European Union will curb Russian strategic influence in Moscow’s
neighbourhood, which could curtail Mr Putin’s plans of a Russian resurgence.
The Russian strongman believes that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was the
greatest catastrophe of the 20th century and has said that
Russia should aspire to be the strongest military power and restore the Soviet
Union. Some analysts believe that Crimea and eastern Ukraine maybe the first steps in Mr Putin's grandiose vision of establishing a Soviet Union-like superstate.
Geneva Statement
After weeks of
wrangling and raising fists, diplomats from Ukraine, Russia, the U.S. and the
EU, meeting in the Swiss town of Geneva, arrived at an agreement to end the
crisis in Ukraine. The following are the highlights of the Geneva Statement:
- All sides must
refrain from any violence and reject all expressions of extremism, including anti–Semitism [anti–Jew policy]. - All illegal armed
groups must be disarmed; all illegally seized buildings must be returned to
legitimate owners; all illegally occupied streets, squares and other public
places in Ukrainian cities and towns must be vacated. - Amnesty will be
granted to protesters and to those who have left buildings and other public
places and surrendered weapons, with the exception of those found guilty of
capital crimes. - The announced
constitutional process will be inclusive, transparent and accountable. It will
include the immediate establishment of a broad national dialogue, with outreach
to all of Ukraine’s regions and political constituencies.
In the end
The crisis in still
unfolding in Ukraine. Pro–Russian protests have spread to the entire
Russian–speaking eastern parts of Ukraine (like Donetsk). Russia is piling
pressure on Ukraine by sending armed militiamen (regular Russian defence forces
posing as freelancers) who have occupied Ukrainian government buildings and who
now effectively control the entire area. There are rising fears that Russia
will annex these provinces; the government in Kiev is nervous and wary of
Russian designs.
Henry
Kissinger says that any measures to solve the crisis in Ukraine can only be “principles,
not prescriptions. People familiar with the region will know that not all of
them will be palatable to all parties. The test is not absolute satisfaction
but balanced dissatisfaction. If some solution based on these or a comparable
element is not achieved, the drift toward confrontation will accelerate. The
time for that will come soon enough.”
I think that while
balanced dissatisfaction is better than absolute dissatisfaction, an uneasy
peace is still better than war.
