The Explainer: Highlights of Iranian Nuke Deal

Last month I wrote two Explainers on Iran: one was on the Iranian
Polity and the second one was on Sanctions
and their Impact.

I know this has come pretty late. 

This
third installment focuses on the finer details of the nuclear deal, which is
officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

(1) How will Iran’s
uranium enrichment capacity be reduced? 

Currently,
Iran has 19000 gas centrifuges. Under the JCPOA, the number of centrifuges will
be reduced to 6,104, almost all of which will be based on old technology that
was current in the 1950s.

Also,
Iran, for the first 15 years of the JCPOA, cannot enrich uranium beyond 3.67%
purity, low-enriched uranium (LEU) of the kind used in nuclear power stations.
It is important to remember that for uranium to be considered weapons-grade, it
has to be enriched to about 90% U-235.

(2)
What about the enriched Uranium stockpile that Iran already possesses? 

As of now, Iran
possesses a stockpile of 7,500 kg of Low Enriched Uranium (LEU). Under the
JCPOA, it will be reduced by a massive 96% to 300 kg; this is expected to be
achieved either by diluting the uranium or by shipping it out of the country.

(3) Can Iran pursue nuclear R&D and enrichment in the future? 

Yes, but there will
stringent restrictions on the research and development that Tehran could carry
out on advanced centrifuges. These conditions are designed to stop Iran from
suddenly upgrading its enrichment capacity after the first 10 years of the agreement.
Also, under the JCPOA, Tehran would be able to test, albeit on a small scale,
experimental new centrifuges.

(4) What does the JCPOA say about the nuclear plants at Arak and Fordow?

Located
near Iran’s holiest town of Qom, the Fordow plant, under the JCPOA, will be
used only for non-military research. In addition, no weapons-related material
will be allowed to be carried out at this plant. As is the case with most
stipulations under the deal, these restrictions at Fordow will last for 15
years.

The Arak heavy water reactor was one of the major sticky points in framing the
JCPOA. Under the deal, Iran would remove the reactor core and fill it with
concrete. Under international supervision, the reactor would be redesigned so
that it produces much less plutonium, if any, and all its spent fuel would be
shipped out of the country.

Also, while Iran will
not be allowed to construct any new heavy water plant in the next 15 years, it
will also not be allowed to build a reprocessing plant or even carry out research
on reprocessing – indefinitely.

(5) Will IAEA
inspections be allowed?

Yes, the inspectors from
the IAEA will be granted full access to all of Iran’s declared nuclear sites.
Under the JCPOA, the IAEA inspectors will get more teeth as they will be able
to visit non-declared sites where they think nuclear work might be going on. If
IAEA inspectors make request for such access, then a commission (made up of
IAEA members) will be set up to evaluate whether the inspectors’ access
requests are justified; all decisions will be taken by majority vote. 

(6) Does the JCPOA allow investigation into Iran’s past nuclear activities?

Yes. Under the JCPOA,
Iran and the IAEA agreed to a ‘road map’ by which the former will provide
access to (nuclear) facilities and people (nuclear researchers) suspected of
involvement in past nuclear experimental work, including weapons and warhead
design, though mostly before 2004. Most importantly, the IAEA would have to
certify Tehran’s cooperation with the inquiry before the country benefits from
sanctions relief.

(7) When will Iran get
relief from economic sanctions? 

In case, Iran fulfils
its side of the conditions (steps listed above), the United States and the
European Union (EU) will provide guarantees that financial and economic
sanctions can be lifted.

The EU will lift its oil
embargo and banking sanctions while allowing Iran to participate in the Swift
electronic banking system, which facilitates all international monetary
transactions.

The U.S. will issue
presidential waivers, by the current president, which will suspend the
operation of American economic (including trade and financial) sanctions.

Further, the UN can
remove the sanctions in the following manner: the JCPOA will be made inserted
into a UN Security Council resolution, which will override the six earlier
sanctions resolutions imposed on Iran over its nuclear programme. However, the
JCPOA will take effect only after 90 days, as the parties involved need to
fulfil domestic legal formalities.

There is one major thing
to remember: while the economic sanctions will be lifted soon, an arms embargo
against Iran will remain in place for five years while a ban on the transfer of
missile technology would stay for eight years.