Mad Donald and 'Rejoining' Trans-Pacific Partnership

Why would CPTPP members bother aggravating themselves with Trumpified FTA negotiations all over again?

In an earlier post discussing the "renegotiated" Korea-US free trade agreement, I told you that you're better off following Trump's various dalliances with card-carrying members of the adult entertainment industry in search of something substantial. We now receive news that, during a talk with lawmakers from rural states worried about an American trade war with China, Trump sought to calm them by not only claiming that one is not inevitable but also that he's looking into rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). In my humble opinion, Trump's relations with porn stars still has more actual policy implications. Allow me to explain.

What has transpired since the US left the TPP-12 is this: The remaining TPP-11 countries understood that the deal could not meet ratification conditions without the United States (who came up with the idea in the first place). From the Vietnam Investment Review:

According to the TPP, the agreement would take effect if the total GDP of the member countries captured 85 per cent of total GDP of the 12 signing countries in 2013. With the withdrawal of the US, which made up 60 per cent of the total GDP of the whole TPP, the eleven remaining countries had to change this. Therefore, if at least six nations approve the CPTPP, it may easily take effect 60 days after signing. Additionally, the new agreement also adds regulations related to the process of withdrawal, participation, and flexible reviewing of the CPTPP in the future.

So, if they were to continue with a deal without the Americans, losing the world's largest consumer market meant that the bar for participation had to be lowered as well given the reduced attractions. This task was accomplished by removing exactly the sort of intellectual property rights agreements the United States has been banging on about with regard to alleged Chinese theft of it. Ditto for patent protections caused by "unreasonable" delays originally meant to placate American MNCs:

[A]round 20 articles of the CPTPP have been temporarily postponed, including the strong commitments on intellectual property that the US raised before. Specifically, 11 of the 20 articles are on intellectual property [my emphasis]. The CPTPP will delay requirements for member countries to change their laws and practices. The CPTPP also suspends the time term of a copyright in case of unreasonable delays in licensing. Members of the agreement will not have to extend protection terms from 50 to 70 years [my emphasis].

The remaining postponed articles are on investment. For the dispute solution mechanism between governments and investors (ISDS), the CPTPP has narrowed the mechanisms availability for foreign investors to sue the host member state. Besides, the CPTPP states that one member of the ISDS Arbitration Panel will be appointed by the government and the plaintiff each, and one by both.

What Trump would in effect ask for is to put back in the IP-related articles in exchange for the US re-joining the agreement...and then some. While the attraction of better access to the world's largest consumer market is great for certain parties--think of up-and-coming exporter Vietnam--this possibility is outweighed by seriously huge inconveniences for the rest. Trump alludes to not wanting to re-enter unless the deal is somehow made better (read: America-friendly) than the original TPP. So, tack on more US-pleasing bits others find hard to swallow and likely more years of negotiation to remake CPTPP into TPP+ or whatever Trump would call it.

There's also the matter of Trump as a reliable negotiator, and he has demonstrated neither reliability nor trustworthiness in his entire existence. Why would the others choose to upend the whole process again to accommodate someone proven to be so fickle? It's not going to happen. My belief remains the same as before: the others are allowing for the possibility for the US re-entering TPP, just not with Trump. For this reason the IP articles and so forth have not been jettisoned altogether but are held in abeyance.

That task may be up to pro-trade Mike Pence after Trump is removed or resigns from office, or the next American president. For now, contemplating a Trump-led TPP return is actually of lesser substance than the consequences of Trump attempting to suppress damaging disclosure of his porn star-loving ways.