Book Review: Intelligence Analysis
"Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach" is a landmark piece by Robert M Clark. Written in 2003, it redefines the intelligence cycle in a more agile way, similar to the many changes in software engineering to make it more flexible. This book was originally recommend to me by a practicing intelligence analyst, and I really can't say enough good things about it. I feel like I've been looking for this book for a long time, as this was one of the first intel books I've read that provided real methods and models for doing practical intelligence analysis. The book was a little expensive, at ~$50+ for 400+ pages, but worth every cent. While it's filled with graphics, it read slow for me as each topic was nuanced with very detailed examples, requiring me to think in-depth about the examples and how they applied to the lessons at hand. Ultimately, I give it 9 out of 10 stars, for being the best book on analytical intelligence methods I've read to date. I recommended it to anyone interested in intelligence analysis, information security, or anyone wanting to improve their analytic abilities. The book is largely divided into three parts, part 1 focusing on the intelligence process, part 2 provides methods for long term intelligence predictions, and part 3 breaks the intelligence process down as a network, showing how the different parts rely on each other. Here are the chapters of the book, although I've removed the more detailed subsections because they made the post hard to read.
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: Intelligence in Twenty-First-Century Conflict
Part 1: The Analysis Process
Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process
Chapter 4: Defining the Intelligence Issue
Chapter 5: Conceptual Frameworks for Intelligence Analysis
Chapter 6: Overview of Models in Intelligence
Chapter 7: Creating the Model
Chapter 8: Denial, Deception, and Signaling
Chapter 9: Systems Modeling and Analysis
Chapter 10: Network Modeling and Analysis
Chapter 11: Geospatial and Temporal Modeling and Analysis
Part 2: The Estimative Process
Chapter 12: Predictive Analysis
Chapter 13: Estimative Forces
Chapter 14: Scenarios
Chapter 15: Simulation Modeling
Part 3: The Systems and Network Views of Analysis
Chapter 16: A Systems View: Function
Chapter 17: A Systems View: Process
Chapter 18: A Systems View: Structure
Chapter 19: A Network View: The Customer
Chapter 20: A Network View: The Collector
Appendix 1: A Tale of Two NIEs
Appendix 2: Example Project Plan
Appendix 3: Presenting Analysis Results
My favorite part of this book is the sheer amount of methods, models, and great tips they give analysts for performing various types of analysis. The core of the book is the target-centric transformation of the intelligence cycle, however the book contains a great deal of techniques for intelligence analysis. I really enjoy how the book dives into analyzing the PMESII, or political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information flow of a given target, and various models that can be applied to these classic intelligence features. "Intelligence Analysis" also shows how to evaluate these factors over a series of time, predicting how new forces may influence them and change them over a longer period of time. The book is full of tables and figures to help analysts visualize problems, and strongly suggests for analysts to incorporate similar charts in their own work. The book even has several maps to help visualize the areas it's discussing, with various technical overlays to enrich the topics. The book is lush in examples, detailing analytic tradecraft used in the intelligence community throughout the years, showing historic examples both good and bad calls made by analysts. I also appreciate how the book takes a hard look at intelligence failures, such as the notorious Iraqi WMD call, showing how the system could be improved at multiple locations in the intelligence process. The book dosn't shy away from any side of the Intelligence Community, and tries to improve the entire network by offering numerous red team perspectives, on how to either counter or improve various intelligence practices. "Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach" takes a deep look at evaluating networks of various types, understanding complex systems, and providing expert methodology on how to analyze and effect these systems. I also appreciate how the book helps analysts shape their reports and gives guidance for how to get customers buy-in with the reports. I also liked the various aspects of denial and deception (D&D) that the author goes into, both how to apply these and how to counter these when you believe D&D is being applied to stifle your own intelligence work. I liked this section so much, I've ordered the authors next book, dedicated solely to this topic, "Deception: Counterdeception and Counterintelligence". All that said, the following is a short primer on target-centric intelligence analysis:
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: Intelligence in Twenty-First-Century Conflict
Part 1: The Analysis Process
Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process
Chapter 4: Defining the Intelligence Issue
Chapter 5: Conceptual Frameworks for Intelligence Analysis
Chapter 6: Overview of Models in Intelligence
Chapter 7: Creating the Model
Chapter 8: Denial, Deception, and Signaling
Chapter 9: Systems Modeling and Analysis
Chapter 10: Network Modeling and Analysis
Chapter 11: Geospatial and Temporal Modeling and Analysis
Part 2: The Estimative Process
Chapter 12: Predictive Analysis
Chapter 13: Estimative Forces
Chapter 14: Scenarios
Chapter 15: Simulation Modeling
Part 3: The Systems and Network Views of Analysis
Chapter 16: A Systems View: Function
Chapter 17: A Systems View: Process
Chapter 18: A Systems View: Structure
Chapter 19: A Network View: The Customer
Chapter 20: A Network View: The Collector
Appendix 1: A Tale of Two NIEs
Appendix 2: Example Project Plan
Appendix 3: Presenting Analysis Results
My favorite part of this book is the sheer amount of methods, models, and great tips they give analysts for performing various types of analysis. The core of the book is the target-centric transformation of the intelligence cycle, however the book contains a great deal of techniques for intelligence analysis. I really enjoy how the book dives into analyzing the PMESII, or political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information flow of a given target, and various models that can be applied to these classic intelligence features. "Intelligence Analysis" also shows how to evaluate these factors over a series of time, predicting how new forces may influence them and change them over a longer period of time. The book is full of tables and figures to help analysts visualize problems, and strongly suggests for analysts to incorporate similar charts in their own work. The book even has several maps to help visualize the areas it's discussing, with various technical overlays to enrich the topics. The book is lush in examples, detailing analytic tradecraft used in the intelligence community throughout the years, showing historic examples both good and bad calls made by analysts. I also appreciate how the book takes a hard look at intelligence failures, such as the notorious Iraqi WMD call, showing how the system could be improved at multiple locations in the intelligence process. The book dosn't shy away from any side of the Intelligence Community, and tries to improve the entire network by offering numerous red team perspectives, on how to either counter or improve various intelligence practices. "Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach" takes a deep look at evaluating networks of various types, understanding complex systems, and providing expert methodology on how to analyze and effect these systems. I also appreciate how the book helps analysts shape their reports and gives guidance for how to get customers buy-in with the reports. I also liked the various aspects of denial and deception (D&D) that the author goes into, both how to apply these and how to counter these when you believe D&D is being applied to stifle your own intelligence work. I liked this section so much, I've ordered the authors next book, dedicated solely to this topic, "Deception: Counterdeception and Counterintelligence". All that said, the following is a short primer on target-centric intelligence analysis: