Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC a Commodity, Not Property Subject to Capital Gains Tax
Bitcoin prices are sensitive to regulatory news and this week’s judgment that Bitcoin is a commodity did spur more confusion. Needless, prices are largely unaffected and are in fact stable adding two percent in the last week. Like last week, traders are expecting higher high meaning our last Bitcoin trade plan is still valid.
Latest Bitcoin News
As long as investor money is involved, regulation is inevitable. All eyes are on the US SEC. If they do give approve Bitcoin ETFs, then prices will undoubtedly surge. While at it, the decision by a Federal US judge on Sep 26 declaring that all cryptocurrencies should be viewed as commodities should be a cause of concern. In fact, it’s confusion for coin holders from a legal stand point. Going forward, the CFTC will literally police the space on matters crypto fraud. That shouldn’t be the case. Simply put, the law is just too broad for cryptocurrencies to be considered commodities because of their association with Bitcoin.
If anything, the CFTC might be labeling Bitcoin a commodity because of Bitcoin Futures. However, their conclusion that all coins are commodities regardless of their internal structure and functioning is naïve to say the least. It’s clear that the case against Randall Crater is justified.
With the CFTC successful, the regulator might end up overstepping bounds. Commentators are worried that they might even go after liquid coins for their past misgivings if in case there was a fraud related case. To justify their move, the CFTC will point at the Commodity Exchange Act and U.S. District Judge Rya Zobel interpretation.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Weekly Chart
Prices are stable and up roughly two percent in the last week. Though this isn’t what investors were expecting, it appears that Bitcoin is in accumulation phase. Besides, it is still trending inside a descending wedge with clear support and resistance levels. If anything, the positive sentiment around crypto and investor expectations of higher highs could inject some momentum on bulls. However, considering the deep retracement of the last couple of months, pragmatists want to see evidence of higher highs.
Empirically, that means prices must edge past $7,200—our main resistance and buy trigger line laid out in previous Bitcoin price analysis. Remember, movements above $7,200 mean prices would be trading above the main resistance trend line and above the wedge. This will, from a pure price action point of view, attract bulls.
Conversely, a contrarian break out that see declines below $6,000 could fuel more draw downs with sellers aiming at $4,500 and later $3,000. That is unlikely thanks to this week’s long lower wick meaning there are opportunities for higher highs in lower time frames for aggressive type of traders.
Daily Chart
Aside from occasional spikes towards $8,500, Bitcoin prices are in consolidation. Visible limits are roughly between $6,000 and $7,000. Coincidentally, these are our important trade triggers and reaction points. With a slowing market and expectant investors, there appears to be an undervaluation of some sorts.
Of course, fundamentally Bitcoin is bullish but for prices to edge higher, bulls must first close above $7,000 and $7,200. But, this doesn’t mean aggressive traders cannot trade. Because of higher highs in lower time frames, we suggest risk off traders to buy at spot prices with stops at $6,300 with targets at $7,200.
Disclaimer: Views and opinions expressed are those of the author and aren’t investment advice. Trading of any form involves risk and so do your due diligence before making a trading decision.
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by Dalmas Ngetich on September 29, 2018 at 07:30AM