Post-Mortem for Bra Theory
Why I’m putting Bra Theory on an indefinite hiatus
In December 2019, I announced that Bra Theory will be halting product development, indefinitely.
Many challenges in the bra world remain unsolved, and Bra Theory failed to deliver an effective solution. For this, I’m deeply sorry.
For those who are still on the search for a better bra, you can refer to this resource.
For those who are curious about our journey, I share the reasoning behind our decision below. It is my wish that our failures may help another succeed.
1. Failure to differentiate from a custom bra-maker through technology
Our original hypothesis was that a technological approach would be able to make an exclusive service, attainable. Pattern-making and fitting, which took many hours of skilled labor, could be distilled into a formula that would generate a pattern based on measurements.
However, after building bras for 20 women, I do not believe that we will “crack this code” in the foreseeable future.
Our biggest challenge was not the technology, but the underlying methodology.
We could not automate that which we did not know how to do by hand.
While tailors have figured out a formula for men’s suits, bra tailoring is a younger technology with a smaller market and far fewer competitors. It used to be the case that tailors would hone their craft, keep their tailoring knowledge as a trade secret, and pass on their knowledge of pattern-making to apprentices.
But bras, coming after the Industrial Revolution, had no such history of custom tailoring. Pattern-makers were accustomed to working with industry fit models, altering their patterns as necessary, and grading their patterns using rules. They were not accustomed to making a precise pattern based on measurements on the body.
I was brash, and thought that with the right team, we could accelerate centuries of learning into six months and a trade secret. We hired professionals to make precise patterns for 20 beta users. Our theory was that this data would enable us to crack the code.
(Some people have suggested machine learning, but to that, I say — data is expensive. A well-fitting bra could cost thousands of dollars of skilled labor. We could not collect enough data points for a black box approach. We had to build our algorithm based on priors.)
We spent a lot of time trying to be clever and whiteboarding out what measurements mattered.
In early 2019, we were even optimistic as we developed an algorithm that seemed to be working for a select size range.
I am proud of our team for that; it was a clever algorithm that replicated the complex series of alterations that a pattern-maker would make based on the constraints she understood about the pattern.
We taught our algorithm to respect certain constraints with different levels of priority. Unfortunately, at first, the humans were not very good at telling the computer what to do. We got better, though not fast enough.
However, even with the help of a professional bra-maker, we encountered limitations at larger sizes, running up to 9 fittings for a customer.
The more pendulous the breast, the more difficult it was to relate measurements on the body to measurements of the pattern.
Our customers were diverse, and our algorithm, clever though it may be, served but 5% of those customers. We soon realized the scale of what we were trying to achieve, and how far we were from those outcomes. This was further cemented in our “Measuring Experiment” in Spring 2019, in which we invited people from our waitlist for complimentary measuring sessions, and discovered the diversity of needs for which our one algorithm had to provide.
So in August 2019, at the conclusion of our beta, I no longer believed that we could achieve successful outcomes within a reasonable time frame, even with an infusion of capital.
There was still far too much Research and Development required, and the business would likely not reach commercial viability.
I thought that the likeliest outcome of launching is to end up like Peach/Zyrra, in which they launched their patented custom-made bra service, pivoted to a traditional lingerie product, and now sell women’s apparel loungewear. While the concept sounded promising, they were in the end unable to turn the concept commercial with the capital they received ($875k in 2010, since the $9.2 million).
A founder must know when to have grit and when to quit. I was slow to recognize failure. I spent June through September finishing up with clients, delivering re-orders, and contemplating what alternatives we had as a business.
Last year, I wrote this: “To scale custom-made bras, you must become a custom bra-maker.”
In the end, we became a custom bra-maker, but we realized we could not scale.
Traditional bespoke services exist, though they are far and few between. They command a higher price point for the labor involved in the endeavor, and they provide a much needed service for those under-served by the mass markets. You can find a list of custom bra-makers here. It is my hope that individual businesses will continue to rise to meet the needs of those who are not accounted for by the mass market.
2. Learning about the problems = requires a new solution
Our original hypothesis was that a custom-made solution was necessary to address the body diversity in the market. However, through our beta, we discovered that customers can be grouped into body shapes, at which point, it may be more effective to work within the mass-production model and solve problems for those cohorts:
- Asymmetric
- Petite, shallow breast
- Small back, large breast
- Large back, large breast
- Post breast-feeding, shallow on top shape
In 2015, I stated that it didn’t make sense for more and more brands to proliferate with different sizing standards, for that would put the onus on the customer to understand the differences between the brands.
However, if there are a finite number of “shape types” that are under-served by the market, it seems more effective to develop brands for those “shape types” and communicate this information to the consumer.
The economics of such an endeavor are not straightforward, and neither is marketing. Launching a traditional bra brand for a particular body shape is a problem that requires a different skill set. It is not clear to me why brands are not more upfront with their fit metrics, but marketing experts have explained to me that it is difficult to market a bra for “smaller busts,” for those who do not want to identify with minority shapes that are not recognized as the aesthetic standard.
I personally do not have it in me to start a traditional lingerie brand — I have realized, through this endeavor, that my strengths are neither consumer goods nor e-commerce.
However, I hope for (1) increased education for consumer awareness of breast shapes, (2) aesthetic standards that embrace diversity, (3) a stronger ecosystem for independent brands to address unmet needs.
It is my sincerest wish that breast-owners come to recognize–and even celebrate–their unique shape, and then find and support brands that are suitable for them.
3. Other challenges: market size, manufacturing
Market Size
Ultimately, a custom-made bra is still going to cost $135, which accounts for 2% of the U.S. lingerie market. At the end of the day, this is a niche market, and for those who can afford a luxury item.
Our conservative calculation of the market size results in $55 million. This is not a number that excites venture capitalists, though we could set our sights on the global market and explain how we would expand into the intimate apparel category. However, our specific product and what it does—shapewear—in truth, is a diminishing category in 2019.
Manufacturing
It is possible, though non-trivial, to establish a sample room overseas that produces garments on a one-off basis. I have been quoted by a lingerie manufacturer that it would cost around $3000 a month to hire 1 pattern-maker and 4-5 seamstresses, for a production of 200 bras a month. Experts have informed me that maintaining quality control for one-off samples would be difficult, but not impossible.
Conclusion
Given the complexity of the multiple challenges that we have yet to answer, I am choosing to put Bra Theory on indefinite hiatus.
A Reflection on the Journey
I cannot begin to express the gratitude I have for Bra Theory. For once, rather than sink into the helplessness of ill-fitting bras, Bra Theory allowed me to stand up and make the change I wanted to see in this world. Unfortunately, I did not achieve what I set out to do. But the brilliant team that assembled behind Bra Theory accomplished much along the way.
Wins
- Met 20 phenomenal women who loved and cared for their bodies, and being able to care for their needs too
- Hit the top of Hacker News and inspired discussion of the statistical significance of the temperature of a measuring tape, which was really inserted into the original article as a red herring.
This was quite an afternoon. We enjoyed these discussions very much. - Met a stellar, interdisciplinary team. Bra experts and math experts joined together to reverse engineer pattern-making. In order to replicate the intuitive work that pattern-makers learn through years of experience, we implemented some nifty technology, like vector math bezier curves (which kept getting misspelled as “brazier”) as well as genetic algorithms to optimize a problem with many constraints of differing priorities.
In order to make an accurate pattern, certain lengths would have to match within 1-2 millimeters of precision. Other corners would have to add up to 180 degrees. The complexity of the problem increased for patterns with more pieces, such as this three piece cup algorithm.
Our bra experts tried to warn me that “bra-making is an art, not a science.” They were truly remarkable artists, but I also think of them as talented mathematicians in 2D to 3D visualizations and transformations. For now, I concede: bra-making is an art we could not quite capture in an algorithm.
The Low
Failure is not easy. A dear friend and mentor of mine wrote, “Startups don’t die when they run out of money, they die when their founders let go.”
I have chosen to let go, and it was not an easy decision.
Early on, I received an email from a woman who had been suffering all her life from ill-fitting bras. She wrote, “The bra situation is the biggest sorrow of my life.” My heart broke for this woman, and I wrote down her words to put on my wall as a source of daily motivation.
I no longer believe that Bra Theory can effectively help with this woman’s bra situation–at least, not in the near future.
And I can’t help but regret that we don’t have an answer for this woman’s pain. Though if we had, I would likely still be carrying the torch for Bra Theory.
I’m afraid I don’t have a solution, and I only have words, which are never quite enough.
To those who are still struggling with their bra situations:
Look for the helpers. Kind strangers on reddit.com/r/abrathatfits will help you find a bra. Knowledgeable, friendly fitters — especially small business owners who curate their own inventory according to the needs of their clientele — are waiting for you to visit. Custom bra-makers are starting their own businesses, ready to do right by you. Entrepreneurs are launching new lingerie brands to serve the under-served. DIY communities provide materials and resources so that you can make your own bra.
Bra Theory’s story ends here, but it’s only the beginning for others.
Entrepreneurs, please keep answering the unmet needs that you uniquely see in the world.
Bra-wearers, please keep trusting and trying, though the journey can be one of trial, error, and frustration.
If there’s anything I learned from this journey, it’s that trial-and-error is necessary to build a better bra, and a better future. We tried and failed, but we are glad that we at least tried.
Bra Theorists — step by step, failure by failure, we wish that you find every success, and find what you are looking for.
Thank you for reading.
from Hacker News https://ift.tt/2EJgW8T